Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
