Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
